Upper House Election 2025Election.comVote Matching

https://gyazo.com/aa48471a2bd225711b50a68d5ab9e6f7

[About the political parties and organizations listed

The following is a list of political parties and organizations that have responded to the Election.com policy questionnaire at this time.

Japan Reform Party is not listed because it has not responded at this time. We will post their responses as soon as we receive them.

This ballot matching is for political organizations that have filed lists for proportional representation in addition to national political parties that meet the party requirements. Political organizations that have candidates in only some electoral districts are not listed.

● 27th House of Councillors Election Calculation of Vote Matching

The "distance" between the party's answer and the user's choice is used to calculate the degree of matching. For example, if Party A answers "Agree" and Party B answers "Slightly Agree" to a question for which the user chose "Agree," Party A will receive more points than Party B because of the greater distance between the two parties' answers.

*(7/13) We received a response from the Japan Seishinkai and have added it to the ballot matching.

*(7/6) We received a response from Team Mirai and have added it to the ballot matching.

2025-07-14

Perhaps there has been a bias that "observed opinions are biased toward the radical side" due to the fact that "the more radical the opinion, the more likely it is to be communicated"

The political parties made policy decisions in accordance with the "radical distribution of opinion" based on that biased observation, and as a result, each party's opinion became more radical.

The distribution of opinions among "those who use vote matching" rather than "those who transmit opinions" was actually more "no strong opinions"

As a result, the probability of clustering users into parties that give moderate answers to radical so-called "ideological" questions of division may have increased

2025-07-20

20 5-step questions

Criticality Survey of Enforcement

Of the following 20 questions you answered, please select three that are of particular importance to you. (Required)

If you choose all central, and the first three for the mandatory importance survey.

https://gyazo.com/ec85b5ad86ce4150b322b660a7586c2d

https://gyazo.com/86c2df70449c038db8d079eb4f7cdada

After researching the phenomenon of Team Mirai being unexpectedly suggested by Election.com's vote matching, the observation was made that when neutral is selected for all answers, the match with Team Mirai is 79%.

While public opinion as visualized on social networking sites is divided, the silent majority is more moderate, and Team Mirai's moderate responses to questions that are fueled by a policy of not fueling division seems to have matched those silent majority clusters as a result.

2025-07-24

The opinion of a political party or user can be regarded as a point in a -2~+2 hypercube in 20 dimensional space

Probably the Euclidean distance.

The three focus questions would expand that axis.

Each party divides the space

By considering "everyone's aggregate result" as the amount of points in the space, we can roughly obtain the distribution of users' opinions.

It's messy to assume a uniform distribution within each space, but it should work.

I'm not sure if it's possible to consider it as a superposition of normal distributions and use the EM algorithm to estimate it.

Once the distribution has been estimated, we can calculate "how to change the answer to any question to increase support."

---